In the essay Island
Civilization: A Vision for Human Occupancy of Earth, Robert Frazier Nash proposes his plan for the
distant fourth millennium. He begins his essay with powerful words on the
destructive behavior of humans, stating that since the very beginning humans
viewed the wilderness as something that must be controlled. To support his
argument, Nash points out that in the Bible the “wilderness” was land cursed by
God, and humans were banished there as punishment. He then continues to point
out how mankind built fences and roads to contain the wild, and that it was
only when the United States Census claimed that there was no longer a frontier
left that humans discovered the damage they had caused. Following this
revelation the human population sought to right their wrongs in different ways.
The government provided relief through the passage of the
Marine Mammal Protection Act in 1972 and that of the Endangered Species Act in
1973. Various authors that supported environmentalism wrote books on things
like restricting one’s own freedom for the good of the environment.
After completing his description of how mankind
destroyed the wilderness and their scramble to rectify the problem, Nash goes
on to explain the 3 possible outcomes for mankind. The first outcome is
referred to as the wasteland scenario. In this future the world has exhausted
all of its resources and become a desolate wasteland that can support very
little life. The garden scenario is the second possible outcome and under it
humans will have created technology capable of controlling nature, at the cost
of diversity. The final outcome is future primitive. This seems to be a
variation of the future Nash would like to see. In this scenario humans would
revert back to hunter gatherers and shun technology, allowing the Earth to
gradually return to its previous state.
The final pages of Nash’s paper explain his idea for
the future. His plan is to restrict the human population to 1.5 billion, and to
make self-sustaining “islands” of civilization. These civilizations would be
clusters of the population, and quite similar to cities. His plan also relies
on advanced technology that would not harm the Earth and that the “islands”
remain isolated from each other. All food production, manufacturing,
sanitation, and other services would take place directly within the
civilization.
I personally believe that Nash’s plan for an island
utopia sounds wonderful, but is not even close to being realistic. My first
major problem with his plan is the reduction of the population. He proposes
cutting the current population to 1.5 billion. In order for something like this
to happen only a fourth of the current population would be allowed to reproduce
one time. Most people want a family, and a family includes children. If you start
denying three fourths of the world the right to have a child, you’re going to
have a major problem. Any attempt to limit the world wide population through
regulations will undoubtedly end in violence and destruction. Thankfully
regulation on such a large scale would be impossible.
Another problem I have with this utopia stems from
the reduced population. One of the results of a population that has been
limited over a short time is a smaller gene pool. People would begin to look
very similar, and soon diversity would be almost nonexistent amongst humans. In
addition to this reduction in diversity, a small gene pool also leaves the
human population very vulnerable. Any sort of viral epidemic could wipeout the
human race, simply because immunity would be unlikely. If you don’t believe an
epidemic is capable of killing so many, just take a look at our history. Scientists
estimate that smallpox killed around 1 billion people, and there is still no
cure for the disease. The best scientists could do was create a vaccine. Another
epidemic that you are probably familiar with is the black plague, which killed at
least a third of the European population.
It is also suggested that a person would be able to
live in the “island” of their choosing. This can only result in conflict over
who would get to live where. You could base it on social status, but then you create
class warfare. Those that were less fortunate might attack another more
fortunate civilization. This would only lead to more destruction of the
environment.
In short, Nash’s dream world sounds amazing. It is
an island of peace and happiness. Who wouldn’t want to have all the resources
you need within a 100 mile radius? Unfortunately it is nothing more than an
unobtainable dream, and any attempt to make it a reality will result in more
chaos.
This is very well written! I like how Chase spent more of his time reflecting on Nash's article than summerizing it. I agree with everything Chase said, especially how these future worlds are appealing but unrealistic. The cost is simply too high, and getting the entire world to agree on a single plan for our future is basically impossible.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis criticism of Roderick Frazier Nash's Island Civilizations lacks scope, the transition to island civilizations would take around a thousand years. During this time many countries will start entering the 5th stage of demographic transition and populations will gradually decline. Also a population of 1.5 billion would not cause a population bottleneck, destroy our genetic diversity, or leave us extra vulnerable to diseases.
ReplyDelete